BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 1–5 Wegberg-Beeck

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Wegberg-Beeck

H. Hase 83'

Y. Leersmacher 88'

D. Touratzidis 58', 49'

M. Kleefisch 53'

S. Hasani 36' (pen)

9/25/2022

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 6Kunstrasenplatz Glesch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf30%

×Draw23%

Wegberg-Beeck47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BCV Glesch / PaffendorfExpected goals in this matchWegberg-Beeck

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.85

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf

1.45

Wegberg-Beeck

1.85

Wegberg-Beeck creates 28% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 44 away

1.40

creates per match

1.75

1.95

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf

1.40

Wegberg-Beeck

1.75

allows per match

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf

1.95

Wegberg-Beeck

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf+0.00on par

Wegberg-Beeck+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf ↓

Wegberg-Beeck →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf or draw

53%

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf or Wegberg-Beeck

77%

Draw or Wegberg-Beeck

70%

Winning margin

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf wins by 2+

14%

Wegberg-Beeck wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 1+ goals

77%

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 2+ goals

42%

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 3+ goals

18%

Wegberg-Beeck 1+ goals

84%

Wegberg-Beeck 2+ goals

55%

Wegberg-Beeck 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf (draw refunded)

39%

Wegberg-Beeck (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.95 · 42 matches

Wegberg-Beeck away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf attack 1.40 + Wegberg-Beeck defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Wegberg-Beeck attack 1.75 + BCV Glesch / Paffendorf defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf scores more

30%

level

23%

Wegberg-Beeck scores more

47%

Wegberg-Beeck at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wegberg-Beeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

S. HasaniPenalty

49'

D. Touratzidis

53'

M. Kleefisch

58'

D. Touratzidis

83'

H. Hase

88'

Y. Leersmacher

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff