BCV Glesch / Paffendorf vs Fortuna Köln II — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 42+ matches
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf37%
Fortuna Köln II41%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 42 home / 79 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over66
- Under34
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes67
- No33
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.95 · 42 matches
Fortuna Köln II away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf attack 1.40 + Fortuna Köln II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.65
Fortuna Köln II attack 1.54 + BCV Glesch / Paffendorf defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.75
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Fortuna Köln II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Fortuna Köln II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Hennef 05
Freialdenhoven
Hürth
Alfter
VfL Vichttal
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
Pesch
Düren Merzenich
FrechenBCV Glesch / Paffendorf
Siegburger SV
SV BreinigFortuna Köln II
Eilendorf
Deutz
Wesseling-Urfeld
FriesdorfIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf host Fortuna Köln II on Sunday, 10 September 2023 at 13:00. The match is part of the Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020/2021 season.
Oberliga - Mittelrhein: BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 0–4 Fortuna Köln II
Fortuna Köln II beat BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 4-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on September 10, 2023.
The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Glesch in Bergheim.