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BCH Lions vs Ulaanbaatar City — Premier League 2020

BCH Lions
BCH Lions
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 1
Ulaanbaatar City
Ulaanbaatar City
N. Tamura 90+1' (pen)
A. Sodmenkh 85'
O. Monkhsaikhan 82'
T. Fernandes 76'
N. Tengis 60', 40'
4/1/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

BCH Lions6%
×Draw9%
Ulaanbaatar City85%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BCH Lions
1.31
Ulaanbaatar City
4.47

Ulaanbaatar City creates 241% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 55 away

creates per match

BCH Lions
0.86
Ulaanbaatar City
2.31

allows per match

BCH Lions
6.64
Ulaanbaatar City
1.76

finishing

BCH Lions+0.00on par
Ulaanbaatar City+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BCH Lions ↓

Ulaanbaatar City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–24%
0–36%
0–46%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–25%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 64% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

BCH Lions or draw
15%
BCH Lions or Ulaanbaatar City
91%
Draw or Ulaanbaatar City
94%

Winning margin

BCH Lions wins by 2+
2%
Ulaanbaatar City wins by 2+
70%

Team goals

BCH Lions 1+ goals
73%
BCH Lions 2+ goals
38%
BCH Lions 3+ goals
14%
Ulaanbaatar City 1+ goals
99%
Ulaanbaatar City 2+ goals
92%
Ulaanbaatar City 3+ goals
79%

Draw no bet

BCH Lions (draw refunded)
7%
Ulaanbaatar City (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BCH Lions at home — creates 0.86, concedes 6.64 · 14 matches

Ulaanbaatar City away — creates 2.31, concedes 1.76 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BCH Lions attack 0.86 + Ulaanbaatar City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.31

Ulaanbaatar City attack 2.31 + BCH Lions defence 6.64 → ÷2 → 4.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

BCH Lions scores more
6%
level
9%
Ulaanbaatar City scores more
85%

Ulaanbaatar City at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Ulaanbaatar City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
N. Tengis
60'
N. Tengis
76'
T. Fernandes
82'
O. Monkhsaikhan
85'
A. Sodmenkh
90+1'
N. TamuraPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: BCH Lions 0–6 Ulaanbaatar City

Ulaanbaatar City beat BCH Lions 6-0 in Premier League on April 1, 2023.

Goals: N. Tengis (40', 60'), T. Fernandes (76'), O. Monkhsaikhan (82'), A. Sodmenkh (85'), N. Tamura (90+1' pen).

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.