Stumbras II 5–3 Kupiškis: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Stumbras II

FT

5 – 3

Kupiškis

10/5/2018

1 Lyga · Round 24Nacionalinės futbolo akademijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Stumbras II47%

×Draw21%

Kupiškis31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stumbras IIExpected goals in this matchKupiškis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.67

Stumbras II

2.08

Kupiškis

1.67

Stumbras II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

1.64

creates per match

2.07

1.27

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

Stumbras II

1.64

Kupiškis

2.07

allows per match

Stumbras II

1.27

Kupiškis

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stumbras II+0.00on par

Kupiškis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stumbras II ↓

Kupiškis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Stumbras II or draw

69%

Stumbras II or Kupiškis

79%

Draw or Kupiškis

53%

Winning margin

Stumbras II wins by 2+

27%

Kupiškis wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Stumbras II 1+ goals

87%

Stumbras II 2+ goals

61%

Stumbras II 3+ goals

34%

Kupiškis 1+ goals

81%

Kupiškis 2+ goals

50%

Kupiškis 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Stumbras II (draw refunded)

60%

Kupiškis (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stumbras II at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Kupiškis away — creates 2.07, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stumbras II attack 1.64 + Kupiškis defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.08

Kupiškis attack 2.07 + Stumbras II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stumbras II scores more

47%

level

21%

Kupiškis scores more

31%

Stumbras II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stumbras II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff