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Baztán vs Valle Egüés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Baztán
Baztán
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Valle Egüés
Valle Egüés
9/7/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 3Paraje Gilxaurdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Baztán31%
×Draw25%
Valle Egüés43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baztán
1.23
Valle Egüés
1.50

Valle Egüés creates 22% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 90 away

creates per match

Baztán
1.08
Valle Egüés
1.27

allows per match

Baztán
1.73
Valle Egüés
1.38

finishing

Baztán+0.00on par
Valle Egüés+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baztán ↓

Valle Egüés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Baztán or draw
57%
Baztán or Valle Egüés
75%
Draw or Valle Egüés
69%

Winning margin

Baztán wins by 2+
13%
Valle Egüés wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Baztán 1+ goals
71%
Baztán 2+ goals
35%
Baztán 3+ goals
13%
Valle Egüés 1+ goals
78%
Valle Egüés 2+ goals
44%
Valle Egüés 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Baztán (draw refunded)
42%
Valle Egüés (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baztán at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

Valle Egüés away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.38 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baztán attack 1.08 + Valle Egüés defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Valle Egüés attack 1.27 + Baztán defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Baztán scores more
31%
level
25%
Valle Egüés scores more
43%

Valle Egüés at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Valle Egüés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baztán vs Valle Egüés

Valle Egüés beat Baztán 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on September 7, 2019.

The match was played at Paraje Gilxaurdi in Elizondo.