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Baztán vs San Juan — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Baztán
Baztán
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
San Juan
San Juan
12/21/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 17Paraje Gilxaurdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Baztán25%
×Draw26%
San Juan49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baztán
1.01
San Juan
1.51

San Juan creates 50% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 62 away

creates per match

Baztán
1.08
San Juan
1.29

allows per match

Baztán
1.73
San Juan
0.94

finishing

Baztán+0.00on par
San Juan+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baztán ↓

San Juan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Baztán or draw
51%
Baztán or San Juan
74%
Draw or San Juan
75%

Winning margin

Baztán wins by 2+
9%
San Juan wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Baztán 1+ goals
64%
Baztán 2+ goals
27%
Baztán 3+ goals
8%
San Juan 1+ goals
78%
San Juan 2+ goals
44%
San Juan 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Baztán (draw refunded)
34%
San Juan (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baztán at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

San Juan away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baztán attack 1.08 + San Juan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.01

San Juan attack 1.29 + Baztán defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Baztán scores more
25%
level
26%
San Juan scores more
49%

San Juan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "San Juan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baztán vs San Juan

San Juan beat Baztán 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on December 21, 2019.

The match was played at Paraje Gilxaurdi in Elizondo.