Baztán 1–1 Peña Azagresa: Result & Stats

Baztán

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Peña Azagresa

11/14/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 5Paraje Gilxaurdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Baztán45%

×Draw23%

Peña Azagresa32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaztánExpected goals in this matchPeña Azagresa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.44

Baztán

1.76

Peña Azagresa

1.44

Baztán creates 22% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 28 away

1.08

creates per match

1.14

1.73

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Baztán

1.08

Peña Azagresa

1.14

allows per match

Baztán

1.73

Peña Azagresa

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baztán+0.00on par

Peña Azagresa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baztán ↓

Peña Azagresa →

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Baztán or draw

68%

Baztán or Peña Azagresa

77%

Draw or Peña Azagresa

55%

Winning margin

Baztán wins by 2+

24%

Peña Azagresa wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Baztán 1+ goals

83%

Baztán 2+ goals

52%

Baztán 3+ goals

26%

Peña Azagresa 1+ goals

76%

Peña Azagresa 2+ goals

42%

Peña Azagresa 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Baztán (draw refunded)

59%

Peña Azagresa (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Baztán at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

Peña Azagresa away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Baztán attack 1.08 + Peña Azagresa defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.76

Peña Azagresa attack 1.14 + Baztán defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Baztán scores more

45%

level

23%

Peña Azagresa scores more

32%

Baztán at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Baztán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff