Baztán 0–0 Corellano: Result & Stats

Baztán

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Corellano

6/12/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 2nd Phase - 8Paraje Gilxaurdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Baztán39%

×Draw25%

Corellano35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaztánExpected goals in this matchCorellano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.36

Baztán

1.45

Corellano

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 44 away

1.08

creates per match

1.00

1.73

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Baztán

1.08

Corellano

1.00

allows per match

Baztán

1.73

Corellano

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baztán+0.00on par

Corellano+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baztán ↓

Corellano →

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Baztán or draw

65%

Baztán or Corellano

75%

Draw or Corellano

61%

Winning margin

Baztán wins by 2+

19%

Corellano wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Baztán 1+ goals

77%

Baztán 2+ goals

42%

Baztán 3+ goals

18%

Corellano 1+ goals

74%

Corellano 2+ goals

39%

Corellano 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Baztán (draw refunded)

53%

Corellano (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Baztán at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

Corellano away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Baztán attack 1.08 + Corellano defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.45

Corellano attack 1.00 + Baztán defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Baztán scores more

39%

level

25%

Corellano scores more

35%

Baztán at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Baztán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff