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Baztán vs Cirbonero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Baztán
Baztán
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Cirbonero
Cirbonero
1/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 11Paraje Gilxaurdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Baztán30%
×Draw25%
Cirbonero44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baztán
1.23
Cirbonero
1.54

Cirbonero creates 25% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 92 away

creates per match

Baztán
1.08
Cirbonero
1.35

allows per match

Baztán
1.73
Cirbonero
1.37

finishing

Baztán+0.00on par
Cirbonero+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baztán ↓

Cirbonero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Baztán or draw
56%
Baztán or Cirbonero
75%
Draw or Cirbonero
70%

Winning margin

Baztán wins by 2+
13%
Cirbonero wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Baztán 1+ goals
71%
Baztán 2+ goals
35%
Baztán 3+ goals
13%
Cirbonero 1+ goals
79%
Cirbonero 2+ goals
45%
Cirbonero 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Baztán (draw refunded)
41%
Cirbonero (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baztán at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

Cirbonero away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baztán attack 1.08 + Cirbonero defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.23

Cirbonero attack 1.35 + Baztán defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Baztán scores more
30%
level
25%
Cirbonero scores more
44%

Cirbonero at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cirbonero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Baztán 2–3 Cirbonero

Cirbonero beat Baztán 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on January 3, 2021.

The match was played at Paraje Gilxaurdi in Elizondo.