Bayreuth 2–1 Viktoria Aschaffenburg: Result & Stats

Bayreuth

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Viktoria Aschaffenburg

5/14/2022

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 37Hans-Walter-Wild-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Bayreuth52%

×Draw24%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BayreuthExpected goals in this matchViktoria Aschaffenburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.14

Bayreuth

1.76

Viktoria Aschaffenburg

1.14

Bayreuth creates 54% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 90 away

1.90

creates per match

1.18

1.09

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Bayreuth

1.90

Viktoria Aschaffenburg

1.18

allows per match

Bayreuth

1.09

Viktoria Aschaffenburg

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayreuth+0.00on par

Viktoria Aschaffenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayreuth ↓

Viktoria Aschaffenburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Bayreuth or draw

75%

Bayreuth or Viktoria Aschaffenburg

76%

Draw or Viktoria Aschaffenburg

48%

Winning margin

Bayreuth wins by 2+

28%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bayreuth 1+ goals

83%

Bayreuth 2+ goals

52%

Bayreuth 3+ goals

26%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg 1+ goals

68%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg 2+ goals

32%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bayreuth (draw refunded)

68%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayreuth at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.09 · 68 matches

Viktoria Aschaffenburg away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.62 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayreuth attack 1.90 + Viktoria Aschaffenburg defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.76

Viktoria Aschaffenburg attack 1.18 + Bayreuth defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bayreuth scores more

52%

level

24%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg scores more

25%

Bayreuth at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bayreuth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff