Bayreuth 1–3 Garching: Result & Stats

Bayreuth

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Garching

7/20/2019

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 2Hans-Walter-Wild-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Bayreuth63%

×Draw19%

Garching18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BayreuthExpected goals in this matchGarching

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.21

Bayreuth

2.37

Garching

1.21

Bayreuth creates 96% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 12 away

1.90

creates per match

1.33

1.09

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Bayreuth

1.90

Garching

1.33

allows per match

Bayreuth

1.09

Garching

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayreuth+0.00on par

Garching+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayreuth ↓

Garching →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Bayreuth or draw

82%

Bayreuth or Garching

81%

Draw or Garching

37%

Winning margin

Bayreuth wins by 2+

41%

Garching wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bayreuth 1+ goals

91%

Bayreuth 2+ goals

68%

Bayreuth 3+ goals

42%

Garching 1+ goals

70%

Garching 2+ goals

34%

Garching 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bayreuth (draw refunded)

77%

Garching (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayreuth at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.09 · 68 matches

Garching away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayreuth attack 1.90 + Garching defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.37

Garching attack 1.33 + Bayreuth defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Bayreuth scores more

63%

level

19%

Garching scores more

18%

Bayreuth at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Bayreuth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff