Bayreuth 1–2 FC Wurzburger Kickers: Result & Stats

Bayreuth

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

FC Wurzburger Kickers

10/14/2023

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 15Hans-Walter-Wild-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Bayreuth32%

×Draw24%

FC Wurzburger Kickers44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BayreuthExpected goals in this matchFC Wurzburger Kickers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.60

Bayreuth

1.33

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.60

FC Wurzburger Kickers creates 20% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 54 away

1.90

creates per match

2.11

1.09

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Bayreuth

1.90

FC Wurzburger Kickers

2.11

allows per match

Bayreuth

1.09

FC Wurzburger Kickers

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayreuth+0.00on par

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayreuth ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Bayreuth or draw

56%

Bayreuth or FC Wurzburger Kickers

76%

Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers

68%

Winning margin

Bayreuth wins by 2+

14%

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Bayreuth 1+ goals

74%

Bayreuth 2+ goals

38%

Bayreuth 3+ goals

15%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals

80%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals

47%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Bayreuth (draw refunded)

42%

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayreuth at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.09 · 68 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayreuth attack 1.90 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.33

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 2.11 + Bayreuth defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bayreuth scores more

32%

level

24%

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more

44%

FC Wurzburger Kickers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Wurzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff