Baynounah SC 2–1 Masafi: Result & Stats

Baynounah SC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Masafi

1/8/2023

Division 1 · Round 16Masafi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Baynounah SC31%

×Draw22%

Masafi47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baynounah SCExpected goals in this matchMasafi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.96

Baynounah SC

1.57

Masafi

1.96

Masafi creates 25% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 75 away

1.38

creates per match

1.23

2.69

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Baynounah SC

1.38

Masafi

1.23

allows per match

Baynounah SC

2.69

Masafi

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baynounah SC+0.00on par

Masafi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baynounah SC ↓

Masafi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Baynounah SC or draw

53%

Baynounah SC or Masafi

78%

Draw or Masafi

69%

Winning margin

Baynounah SC wins by 2+

15%

Masafi wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Baynounah SC 1+ goals

79%

Baynounah SC 2+ goals

46%

Baynounah SC 3+ goals

21%

Masafi 1+ goals

86%

Masafi 2+ goals

58%

Masafi 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Baynounah SC (draw refunded)

40%

Masafi (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baynounah SC at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.69 · 16 matches

Masafi away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.77 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baynounah SC attack 1.38 + Masafi defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.57

Masafi attack 1.23 + Baynounah SC defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Baynounah SC scores more

31%

level

22%

Masafi scores more

47%

Masafi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Masafi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff