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Bayeux vs Caen — Coupe de France 2018

Bayeux
Bayeux
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Caen
Caen
P. Aubel 51'
R. Guillotte 47'
B. Renaux 27'
Vinicius Gomes 72'
I. Botella 23'
11/15/2025Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 1/128-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bayeux15%
×Draw15%
Caen70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayeux
1.46
Caen
3.21

Caen creates 120% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bayeux
1.67
Caen
2.41

allows per match

Bayeux
4.00
Caen
1.24

finishing

Bayeux+0.00on par
Caen+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayeux ↓

Caen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–27%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Bayeux or draw
30%
Bayeux or Caen
85%
Draw or Caen
85%

Winning margin

Bayeux wins by 2+
6%
Caen wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Bayeux 1+ goals
77%
Bayeux 2+ goals
43%
Bayeux 3+ goals
18%
Caen 1+ goals
96%
Caen 2+ goals
82%
Caen 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Bayeux (draw refunded)
17%
Caen (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayeux at home — creates 1.67, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

Caen away — creates 2.41, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayeux attack 1.67 + Caen defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.46

Caen attack 2.41 + Bayeux defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Bayeux scores more
15%
level
15%
Caen scores more
70%

Caen at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Caen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
I. Botella
27'
B. Renaux
47'
R. Guillotte
51'
P. Aubel
72'
Vinicius Gomes
Bayeux
Caen
O. Joba
Manager: O. Joba
Maxime D'Ornano
Manager: Maxime D'Ornano

Coupe de France: Bayeux 3–2 Caen

Bayeux beat Caen 3-2 in Coupe de France on November 15, 2025.

Goals: I. Botella (23'), B. Renaux (27'), R. Guillotte (47'), P. Aubel (51'), Vinicius Gomes (72').