Bayern Munich W 2–2 Roma W: Result & Stats

Bayern Munich W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Roma W

11/15/2023

UEFA Champions League Women · Group Stage - 1FC Bayern Campus Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bayern Munich W55%

×Draw19%

Roma W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern Munich WExpected goals in this matchRoma W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.64

Bayern Munich W

2.46

Roma W

1.64

Bayern Munich W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 18 away

2.30

creates per match

2.50

0.78

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Bayern Munich W

2.30

Roma W

2.50

allows per match

Bayern Munich W

0.78

Roma W

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern Munich W+0.00on par

Roma W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Munich W ↓

Roma W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Bayern Munich W or draw

75%

Bayern Munich W or Roma W

81%

Draw or Roma W

45%

Winning margin

Bayern Munich W wins by 2+

35%

Roma W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bayern Munich W 1+ goals

91%

Bayern Munich W 2+ goals

70%

Bayern Munich W 3+ goals

44%

Roma W 1+ goals

81%

Roma W 2+ goals

49%

Roma W 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Bayern Munich W (draw refunded)

69%

Roma W (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Munich W at home — creates 2.30, concedes 0.78 · 27 matches

Roma W away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Munich W attack 2.30 + Roma W defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.46

Roma W attack 2.50 + Bayern Munich W defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bayern Munich W scores more

55%

level

19%

Roma W scores more

25%

Bayern Munich W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bayern Munich W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff