Bayern Munich W 4–0 Juventus W: Result & Stats

Bayern Munich W

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Juventus W

A. Şehitler 81'

K. Bühl 73'

P. Harder 52'

J. Damnjanović 22'

12/12/2024

UEFA Champions League Women · Group Stage - 5FC Bayern Campus Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Bayern Munich W51%

×Draw24%

Juventus W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern Munich WExpected goals in this matchJuventus W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.11

Bayern Munich W

1.70

Juventus W

1.11

Bayern Munich W creates 53% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 20 away

2.30

creates per match

1.45

0.78

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Bayern Munich W

2.30

Juventus W

1.45

allows per match

Bayern Munich W

0.78

Juventus W

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern Munich W+0.00on par

Juventus W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Munich W ↓

Juventus W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bayern Munich W or draw

75%

Bayern Munich W or Juventus W

76%

Draw or Juventus W

49%

Winning margin

Bayern Munich W wins by 2+

28%

Juventus W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bayern Munich W 1+ goals

82%

Bayern Munich W 2+ goals

51%

Bayern Munich W 3+ goals

24%

Juventus W 1+ goals

67%

Juventus W 2+ goals

30%

Juventus W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bayern Munich W (draw refunded)

67%

Juventus W (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Munich W at home — creates 2.30, concedes 0.78 · 27 matches

Juventus W away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Munich W attack 2.30 + Juventus W defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.70

Juventus W attack 1.45 + Bayern Munich W defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bayern Munich W scores more

51%

level

24%

Juventus W scores more

25%

Bayern Munich W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bayern Munich W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

P. Harder

Bayern Munich W · M

8.2

Match Events

22'

J. Damnjanović

52'

P. Harder

58'

S. Lohmann← L. Dallmann

63'

C. Beccari← B. Bonansea

63'

S. Cantore← V. Bergamaschi

68'

T. Hansen← C. Simon

68'

L. Schüller← J. Damnjanović

73'

K. Bühl↳ G. Viggósdóttir

74'

L. Thomas← M. Lenzini

75'

E. Schatzer← A. Caruso

80'

J. Zigiotti Olme← G. Stanway

80'

A. Şehitler← P. Harder

80'

A. Lehmann← A. Vangsgaard

81'

A. Şehitler↳ L. Schüller

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BayernJuventus

Overview

72%Possession28%

18Total Shots7

8Corners2

11Fouls6

Shots

18Total Shots7

7On Target1

8Off Target4

3Blocked2

13Inside Box2

5Outside Box5

Passing

72%Possession28%

779Total Passes301

711Accurate Passes238

91%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls6

3Offsides0