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Bayern Munich vs Dynamo Kyiv — UEFA Champions League 2026

Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
9/29/2021UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 2Allianz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bayern Munich73%
×Draw16%
Dynamo Kyiv10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayern Munich
2.42
Dynamo Kyiv
0.78

Bayern Munich creates 210% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bayern Munich
2.85
Dynamo Kyiv
0.77

allows per match

Bayern Munich
0.79
Dynamo Kyiv
2.00

finishing

Bayern Munich+0.00on par
Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Munich ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Bayern Munich or draw
90%
Bayern Munich or Dynamo Kyiv
84%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
27%

Winning margin

Bayern Munich wins by 2+
50%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Bayern Munich 1+ goals
91%
Bayern Munich 2+ goals
69%
Bayern Munich 3+ goals
43%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
54%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
18%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bayern Munich (draw refunded)
88%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Munich at home — creates 2.85, concedes 0.79 · 33 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Munich attack 2.85 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.77 + Bayern Munich defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Bayern Munich scores more
73%
level
16%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
10%

Bayern Munich at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Bayern Munich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League: Bayern Munich 5–0 Dynamo Kyiv

Bayern Munich beat Dynamo Kyiv 5-0 in UEFA Champions League on September 29, 2021.

The match was played at Allianz Arena in München.