Bayern München U19 2–0 Werder Bremen U19

Bayern München U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Werder Bremen U19

F. Chávez 87'

J. Kusi-Asare 5'

2/8/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 2FC Bayern Campus Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Bayern München U1947%

×Draw20%

Werder Bremen U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern München U19Expected goals in this matchWerder Bremen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.86

Bayern München U19

2.25

Werder Bremen U19

1.86

Bayern München U19 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 71 away

2.58

creates per match

2.21

1.52

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Bayern München U19

2.58

Werder Bremen U19

2.21

allows per match

Bayern München U19

1.52

Werder Bremen U19

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Werder Bremen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München U19 ↓

Werder Bremen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Bayern München U19 or draw

67%

Bayern München U19 or Werder Bremen U19

80%

Draw or Werder Bremen U19

53%

Winning margin

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

28%

Werder Bremen U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

89%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

65%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

39%

Werder Bremen U19 1+ goals

84%

Werder Bremen U19 2+ goals

55%

Werder Bremen U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Werder Bremen U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern München U19 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.52 · 73 matches

Werder Bremen U19 away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.92 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München U19 attack 2.58 + Werder Bremen U19 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.25

Werder Bremen U19 attack 2.21 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bayern München U19 scores more

47%

level

20%

Werder Bremen U19 scores more

33%

Bayern München U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

J. Kusi-Asare

46'

L. Puljić← D. Ofli

46'

L. Richter← P. Scholl

46'

K. Manthey← A. Halicioglu

60'

F. Chávez← Javier Fernández

60'

W. Mike← C. Wijks

60'

Y. Nasrawe← J. Asp Jensen

76'

S. Zöls← L. Richter

80'

J. Warnken← L. Baum

87'

F. Chávez

88'

J. Ossadnik← P. Erevbenagie

88'

M. Hathaway← J. Joas

Bayern

Werder

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: P. Gaydarov

46'▲L. Puljić←▼D. Ofli

46'▲L. Richter←▼P. Scholl

60'▲F. Chávez←▼Javier Fernández

60'▲W. Mike←▼C. Wijks

60'▲Y. Nasrawe←▼J. Asp Jensen

76'▲S. Zöls←▼L. Richter

Bayern München U19 substitutes

PuljićRichterChávezMikeNasraweZölsStancic

Manager: C. Makiadi

46'▲K. Manthey←▼A. Halicioglu

80'▲J. Warnken←▼L. Baum

88'▲J. Ossadnik←▼P. Erevbenagie

88'▲M. Hathaway←▼J. Joas

Werder Bremen U19 substitutes

MantheyWarnkenOssadnikHathawayStarckeLindhorstFreiberg