Bayern München U19 3–0 Unterhaching U19

Bayern München U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Unterhaching U19

T. Buchmann 77'

G. Mamedova 56'

B. Neziri 3' (pen)

2/26/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 16FC Bayern Campus Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Bayern München U1956%

×Draw20%

Unterhaching U1924%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern München U19Expected goals in this matchUnterhaching U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.43

Bayern München U19

2.27

Unterhaching U19

1.43

Bayern München U19 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 55 away

2.58

creates per match

1.33

1.52

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Bayern München U19

2.58

Unterhaching U19

1.33

allows per match

Bayern München U19

1.52

Unterhaching U19

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München U19 ↓

Unterhaching U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Bayern München U19 or draw

76%

Bayern München U19 or Unterhaching U19

80%

Draw or Unterhaching U19

44%

Winning margin

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

35%

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

90%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

66%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

39%

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

76%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

42%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern München U19 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.52 · 73 matches

Unterhaching U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.96 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München U19 attack 2.58 + Unterhaching U19 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.27

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.33 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bayern München U19 scores more

56%

level

20%

Unterhaching U19 scores more

24%

Bayern München U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

B. NeziriPenalty

56'

G. Mamedova

60'

N. Nollenberger← B. Mashigo

64'

L. Denk← G. Marušić

71'

B. Holzmeier← A.Keller

74'

A. Pavlović← M. Wenig

77'

T. Buchmann

79'

D. Haimerl← N. Ortel

79'

J. Gottmeier← F. Seidel

83'

M. Sanyang← D. Jonathans

86'

A. Ibrahimović← L. Fust

90'

V. Zentrich

90'

V. Zentrich

Bayern

Unterhaching

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: M. Demichelis

64'▲L. Denk←▼G. Marušić

74'▲A. Pavlović←▼M. Wenig

83'▲M. Sanyang←▼D. Jonathans

86'▲A. Ibrahimović←▼L. Fust

Bayern München U19 substitutes

DenkPavlovićSanyangIbrahimovićHepburnDresselSulley

Manager: S. Teichmann

60'▲N. Nollenberger←▼B. Mashigo

71'▲B. Holzmeier←▼A.Keller

79'▲D. Haimerl←▼N. Ortel

79'▲J. Gottmeier←▼F. Seidel

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

NollenbergerHolzmeierHaimerlGottmeierEcklFröhlichBarakat