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Bayern München U19 vs RB Leipzig U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Bayern München U19
Bayern München U19
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 3
RB Leipzig U19
RB Leipzig U19
4/25/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Bayern München U1943%
×Draw21%
RB Leipzig U1936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayern München U19
2.02
RB Leipzig U19
1.84

Bayern München U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 73 away

creates per match

Bayern München U19
2.58
RB Leipzig U19
2.16

allows per match

Bayern München U19
1.52
RB Leipzig U19
1.47

finishing

Bayern München U19+0.00on par
RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München U19 ↓

RB Leipzig U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Bayern München U19 or draw
64%
Bayern München U19 or RB Leipzig U19
79%
Draw or RB Leipzig U19
57%

Winning margin

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+
24%
RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bayern München U19 1+ goals
87%
Bayern München U19 2+ goals
60%
Bayern München U19 3+ goals
33%
RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals
84%
RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals
55%
RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)
54%
RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern München U19 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.52 · 73 matches

RB Leipzig U19 away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.47 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München U19 attack 2.58 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.02

RB Leipzig U19 attack 2.16 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bayern München U19 scores more
43%
level
21%
RB Leipzig U19 scores more
36%

Bayern München U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Bayern
RB
Peter Gaydarov
Manager: Peter Gaydarov
S. Heidinger
Manager: S. Heidinger

Bayern München U19 3 – 3 RB Leipzig U19

Bayern München U19 and RB Leipzig U19 drew 3-3 in U19 Bundesliga on April 25, 2026.