Bayern München U19 2–0 Mainz 05 U19: Result & Stats

Bayern München U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mainz 05 U19

B. Wimmer 85'

A. Pavlović 41' (pen)

2/12/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 13FC Bayern Campus Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Bayern München U1938%

×Draw21%

Mainz 05 U1940%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern München U19Expected goals in this matchMainz 05 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.96

Bayern München U19

1.91

Mainz 05 U19

1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 75 away

2.58

creates per match

2.40

1.52

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Bayern München U19

2.58

Mainz 05 U19

2.40

allows per match

Bayern München U19

1.52

Mainz 05 U19

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München U19 ↓

Mainz 05 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Bayern München U19 or draw

60%

Bayern München U19 or Mainz 05 U19

79%

Draw or Mainz 05 U19

62%

Winning margin

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

20%

Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

85%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

57%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

30%

Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals

86%

Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals

58%

Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern München U19 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.52 · 73 matches

Mainz 05 U19 away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München U19 attack 2.58 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.91

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.40 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bayern München U19 scores more

38%

level

21%

Mainz 05 U19 scores more

40%

Mainz 05 U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mainz 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

A. PavlovićPenalty

69'

B. Dibrani← E. Demircan

69'

M. Schablas← Y. Qashi

69'

A. Dardari← G. Degtjarevs

69'

D. Peštić← M. Wiesnet

73'

N. Leipold← L. Bierschenk

85'

B. Wimmer

86'

B. Hepburn← L. Klanac

86'

A. Bagdadi← J. Amann

86'

D. Azakir← J. Götze

89'

B. Emci← M. Vinlöf

Bayern

Mainz

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Galm

69'▲B. Dibrani←▼E. Demircan

69'▲M. Schablas←▼Y. Qashi

86'▲B. Hepburn←▼L. Klanac

89'▲B. Emci←▼M. Vinlöf

Bayern München U19 substitutes

DibraniSchablasHepburnEmciDettoniDezielBöhmeke

Manager: B. Hoffmann

69'▲A. Dardari←▼G. Degtjarevs

69'▲D. Peštić←▼M. Wiesnet

73'▲N. Leipold←▼L. Bierschenk

86'▲A. Bagdadi←▼J. Amann

86'▲D. Azakir←▼J. Götze

Mainz 05 U19 substitutes

DardariPeštićLeipoldBagdadiAzakirZutherTanjga