Bayern München U19 0–2 Köln U19: Result & Stats

Bayern München U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Köln U19

F. Harchaoui 45'

J. von der Hitz 24'

3/9/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 6FC Bayern Campus Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Bayern München U1940%

×Draw22%

Köln U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern München U19Expected goals in this matchKöln U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.82

Bayern München U19

1.86

Köln U19

1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 75 away

2.58

creates per match

2.12

1.52

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Bayern München U19

2.58

Köln U19

2.12

allows per match

Bayern München U19

1.52

Köln U19

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München U19 ↓

Köln U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Bayern München U19 or draw

62%

Bayern München U19 or Köln U19

78%

Draw or Köln U19

60%

Winning margin

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

21%

Köln U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

84%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

55%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

28%

Köln U19 1+ goals

84%

Köln U19 2+ goals

54%

Köln U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Köln U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern München U19 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.52 · 73 matches

Köln U19 away — creates 2.12, concedes 1.15 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München U19 attack 2.58 + Köln U19 defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.86

Köln U19 attack 2.12 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bayern München U19 scores more

40%

level

22%

Köln U19 scores more

38%

Bayern München U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

J. von der Hitz

31'

K. Hekmat

34'

R. Mijatović← L. Puljić

45'

F. Harchaoui

46'

S. Durakov← M. Scott

46'

V. Yıldız← M. Sadat

62'

A. Kotya-Fofana← J. Friemel

62'

K. Sancarbarlaz← F. Schenten

70'

David Daiber← L. Karl

70'

N. Codjo-Evora← S. Zöls

75'

C. Chukwukelu← Y. Niang

78'

M. Schuhbauer← L. Richter

89'

A. Puzzo← K. Irmiev

89'

J. Ponente← J. von der Hitz

90+1'

F. Harchaoui

90+1'

F. Harchaoui

Bayern

Köln

Marutzki

Spitali

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Gaydarov

34'▲R. Mijatović←▼L. Puljić

46'▲S. Durakov←▼M. Scott

46'▲V. Yıldız←▼M. Sadat

70'▲David Daiber←▼L. Karl

70'▲N. Codjo-Evora←▼S. Zöls

78'▲M. Schuhbauer←▼L. Richter

Bayern München U19 substitutes

MijatovićDurakovYıldızDaiberCodjo-EvoraSchuhbauerStancic

Manager: S. Ruthenbeck

62'▲A. Kotya-Fofana←▼J. Friemel

62'▲K. Sancarbarlaz←▼F. Schenten

75'▲C. Chukwukelu←▼Y. Niang

89'▲A. Puzzo←▼K. Irmiev

89'▲J. Ponente←▼J. von der Hitz

Köln U19 substitutes

Kotya-FofanaSancarbarlazChukwukeluPuzzoPonenteFernandesSchmitz

U19 Bundesliga: Bayern München U19 0–2 Köln U19

Köln U19 beat Bayern München U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on March 9, 2025.

Goals: J. von der Hitz (24'), F. Harchaoui (45').

The match was played at FC Bayern Campus Platz 1 in München.

Bayern München U19 vs Köln U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Bayern München U19 0–2 Köln U19