Bayern München U19 2–1 København U19

Bayern München U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

København U19

11/29/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 5FC Bayern Campus Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bayern München U1932%

×Draw22%

København U1946%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern München U19Expected goals in this matchKøbenhavn U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.88

Bayern München U19

1.53

København U19

1.88

København U19 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 9 away

1.95

creates per match

2.11

1.65

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Bayern München U19

1.95

København U19

2.11

allows per match

Bayern München U19

1.65

København U19

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

København U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München U19 ↓

København U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Bayern München U19 or draw

54%

Bayern München U19 or København U19

78%

Draw or København U19

68%

Winning margin

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

15%

København U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

78%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

45%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

20%

København U19 1+ goals

85%

København U19 2+ goals

56%

København U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

41%

København U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern München U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

København U19 away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München U19 attack 1.95 + København U19 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.53

København U19 attack 2.11 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bayern München U19 scores more

32%

level

22%

København U19 scores more

46%

København U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "København U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff