Bayern München U19 2–1 Jahn Regensburg U19

Bayern München U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Jahn Regensburg U19

Y. Nasrawe 43'

T. Binder 17'

B. Kieffer 85'

11/23/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 12FC Bayern Campus Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Bayern München U1963%

×Draw18%

Jahn Regensburg U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern München U19Expected goals in this matchJahn Regensburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

1.30

Bayern München U19

2.51

Jahn Regensburg U19

1.30

Bayern München U19 creates 93% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 25 away

2.58

creates per match

1.08

1.52

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Bayern München U19

2.58

Jahn Regensburg U19

1.08

allows per match

Bayern München U19

1.52

Jahn Regensburg U19

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Jahn Regensburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München U19 ↓

Jahn Regensburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Bayern München U19 or draw

82%

Bayern München U19 or Jahn Regensburg U19

82%

Draw or Jahn Regensburg U19

37%

Winning margin

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

42%

Jahn Regensburg U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

92%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

71%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

45%

Jahn Regensburg U19 1+ goals

73%

Jahn Regensburg U19 2+ goals

37%

Jahn Regensburg U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Jahn Regensburg U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern München U19 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.52 · 73 matches

Jahn Regensburg U19 away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.44 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München U19 attack 2.58 + Jahn Regensburg U19 defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.51

Jahn Regensburg U19 attack 1.08 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Bayern München U19 scores more

63%

level

18%

Jahn Regensburg U19 scores more

18%

Bayern München U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

T. Binder

43'

Y. Nasrawe

46'

B. Olychenko← V. Yıldız

58'

F. Hanula← J. Lehmeier

58'

M. Kircher← L. Edimo

62'

J. Eckl← Y. Nasrawe

62'

L. Schäfer← N. Codjo-Evora

62'

M. Schuhbauer← T. Binder

62'

S. Zöls← L. Puljić

77'

S. Durakov← S. Chemwor

85'

B. Kieffer

Bayern

Jahn

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Binder

⚽

▼

Nasrawe

▼

Chemwor

▼

Codjo-Evo

Manager: P. Gaydarov

46'▲B. Olychenko←▼V. Yıldız

62'▲J. Eckl←▼Y. Nasrawe

62'▲L. Schäfer←▼N. Codjo-Evora

62'▲M. Schuhbauer←▼T. Binder

62'▲S. Zöls←▼L. Puljić

77'▲S. Durakov←▼S. Chemwor

Bayern München U19 substitutes

OlychenkoEcklSchäferSchuhbauerZölsDurakovKlanac

Manager: Y. Ak

58'▲F. Hanula←▼J. Lehmeier

58'▲M. Kircher←▼L. Edimo

Jahn Regensburg U19 substitutes

HanulaKircherUgwuanena