Bayern München U19 5–2 Ingolstadt U19

Bayern München U19

FT

5 – 2

HT: 4 – 1

Ingolstadt U19

4/14/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - Preliminary Round - 3FC Bayern Campus Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Bayern München U1946%

×Draw21%

Ingolstadt U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern München U19Expected goals in this matchIngolstadt U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.82

Bayern München U19

2.17

Ingolstadt U19

1.82

Bayern München U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 72 away

2.63

creates per match

2.13

1.52

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Bayern München U19

2.63

Ingolstadt U19

2.13

allows per match

Bayern München U19

1.52

Ingolstadt U19

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Ingolstadt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München U19 ↓

Ingolstadt U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Bayern München U19 or draw

67%

Bayern München U19 or Ingolstadt U19

79%

Draw or Ingolstadt U19

54%

Winning margin

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

27%

Ingolstadt U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

89%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

64%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

36%

Ingolstadt U19 1+ goals

84%

Ingolstadt U19 2+ goals

54%

Ingolstadt U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Ingolstadt U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern München U19 at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.52 · 71 matches

Ingolstadt U19 away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.71 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München U19 attack 2.63 + Ingolstadt U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.17

Ingolstadt U19 attack 2.13 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bayern München U19 scores more

46%

level

21%

Ingolstadt U19 scores more

33%

Bayern München U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff