Bayern München U19 3–2 Feyenoord U19

Bayern München U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Feyenoord U19

2/28/2024

UEFA Youth League · Round of 16FC Bayern Campus Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bayern München U1935%

×Draw21%

Feyenoord U1944%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern München U19Expected goals in this matchFeyenoord U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

2.08

Bayern München U19

1.85

Feyenoord U19

2.08

Feyenoord U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 4 away

1.95

creates per match

2.50

1.65

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Bayern München U19

1.95

Feyenoord U19

2.50

allows per match

Bayern München U19

1.65

Feyenoord U19

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Feyenoord U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München U19 ↓

Feyenoord U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Bayern München U19 or draw

56%

Bayern München U19 or Feyenoord U19

79%

Draw or Feyenoord U19

65%

Winning margin

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

18%

Feyenoord U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

84%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

55%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

28%

Feyenoord U19 1+ goals

87%

Feyenoord U19 2+ goals

61%

Feyenoord U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Feyenoord U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern München U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

Feyenoord U19 away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München U19 attack 1.95 + Feyenoord U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.85

Feyenoord U19 attack 2.50 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bayern München U19 scores more

35%

level

21%

Feyenoord U19 scores more

44%

Feyenoord U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Feyenoord U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff