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Bayern München U19 vs Dinamo Zagreb U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Bayern München U19
Bayern München U19
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Dinamo Zagreb U19
Dinamo Zagreb U19
3/4/2020UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · 8th FinalsFC Bayern Campus Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bayern München U1952%
×Draw22%
Dinamo Zagreb U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayern München U19
1.93
Dinamo Zagreb U19
1.28

Bayern München U19 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

creates per match

Bayern München U19
1.95
Dinamo Zagreb U19
0.91

allows per match

Bayern München U19
1.65
Dinamo Zagreb U19
1.91

finishing

Bayern München U19+0.00on par
Dinamo Zagreb U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München U19 ↓

Dinamo Zagreb U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Bayern München U19 or draw
75%
Bayern München U19 or Dinamo Zagreb U19
78%
Draw or Dinamo Zagreb U19
48%

Winning margin

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+
30%
Dinamo Zagreb U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bayern München U19 1+ goals
85%
Bayern München U19 2+ goals
57%
Bayern München U19 3+ goals
30%
Dinamo Zagreb U19 1+ goals
72%
Dinamo Zagreb U19 2+ goals
37%
Dinamo Zagreb U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)
67%
Dinamo Zagreb U19 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern München U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

Dinamo Zagreb U19 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München U19 attack 1.95 + Dinamo Zagreb U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.93

Dinamo Zagreb U19 attack 0.91 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bayern München U19 scores more
52%
level
22%
Dinamo Zagreb U19 scores more
25%

Bayern München U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bayern München U19 2 – 2 Dinamo Zagreb U19

Bayern München U19 and Dinamo Zagreb U19 drew 2-2 in UEFA Youth League on March 4, 2020.

The match was played at FC Bayern Campus Platz 1 in München.