Bayern München U19 vs Club Brugge U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 18+ matches
Bayern München U1935%
Club Brugge U1943%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Club Brugge U19 creates 13% more chances
Season form · 22 home / 18 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over71
- Under29
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes70
- No30
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Bayern München U19 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Bayern München U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.77 · 22 matches
Club Brugge U19 away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Bayern München U19 attack 2.00 + Club Brugge U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.72
Club Brugge U19 attack 2.11 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.94
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Club Brugge U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Club Brugge U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Bayern München U19 substitutes
Club Brugge U19 substitutes
Head to Head
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Qarabağ U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Bayern München U19 host Club Brugge U19 on Wednesday, 22 October 2025 at 14:00. The match is part of the UEFA Youth League 2018/2019 season.
UEFA Youth League: Bayern München U19 0–3 Club Brugge U19
Club Brugge U19 beat Bayern München U19 3-0 in UEFA Youth League on October 22, 2025.
Goals: L. Goemaere (26' pen), Y. Musuayi (38'), W. Verlinden (85').
The match was played at FC Bayern Campus in Munich.