Bayern München U19 2–3 Chelsea U19: Result & Stats

Bayern München U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Chelsea U19

F. Chavez 26', 19'

H. Murray-Campbell 62'

S. Mheuka 47'

G. Antwi 15'

9/17/2025

UEFA Youth League · League Stage - 1FC Bayern Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bayern München U1941%

×Draw21%

Chelsea U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern München U19Expected goals in this matchChelsea U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.85

Bayern München U19

1.94

Chelsea U19

1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 17 away

2.00

creates per match

1.94

1.77

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Bayern München U19

2.00

Chelsea U19

1.94

allows per match

Bayern München U19

1.77

Chelsea U19

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Chelsea U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München U19 ↓

Chelsea U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Bayern München U19 or draw

62%

Bayern München U19 or Chelsea U19

79%

Draw or Chelsea U19

59%

Winning margin

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

22%

Chelsea U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

86%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

58%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

30%

Chelsea U19 1+ goals

84%

Chelsea U19 2+ goals

55%

Chelsea U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Chelsea U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern München U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.77 · 22 matches

Chelsea U19 away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München U19 attack 2.00 + Chelsea U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.94

Chelsea U19 attack 1.94 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bayern München U19 scores more

41%

level

21%

Chelsea U19 scores more

38%

Bayern München U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

G. Antwi↳ L. Cardoso

19'

F. Chavez

26'

F. Chavez↳ D. Ofli

47'

S. Mheuka↳ R. Kavuma McQueen

59'

M. Dalpiaz

61'

D. Ofli

62'

S. Chemwor← M. Gottlicher

62'

H. Murray-Campbell

63'

F. Egwuatu← T. Binder

73'

S. Gordon← R. Kavuma McQueen

83'

J. Nasrawe← A. Licina

83'

Y. Gashi← F. Chavez

88'

M. Nicoll Jazuli← R. Walsh

90'

R. Pavlic← D. Ofli

90+2'

J. Derry← L. Cardoso

Bayern

Chelsea

1

Bernal

2

⚽

Antwi

5

Emenalo

6

Harrison

3

⚽

Murray-Ca

4

Subuloye

7

A

▼

Cardoso

8

McMahon

9

⚽

Mheuka

10

▼

Walsh

11

A

▼

1

2

5

6

4

3

A

▼

Ofli

8

▼

Gottliche

11

▼

Binder

7

▼

Licina

10

⚽2

▼

Chavez

9

Rovere

Manager: Peter Gaydarov

62'▲S. Chemwor←▼M. Gottlicher

63'▲F. Egwuatu←▼T. Binder

83'▲J. Nasrawe←▼A. Licina

83'▲Y. Gashi←▼F. Chavez

90'▲R. Pavlic←▼D. Ofli

Bayern München U19 substitutes

18Ruland12Wijks13Pavlic14Olychenko15Nasrawe16Chemwor17Egwuatu19Gashi20Cardozo

73'▲S. Gordon←▼R. Kavuma McQueen

88'▲M. Nicoll Jazuli←▼R. Walsh

90+2'▲J. Derry←▼L. Cardoso

Chelsea U19 substitutes

13Sands12Diakite14Richards15Jazuli16Eboue17Derry18Barbour19Gordon20Ezenwata

Match Recap: Bayern München U19 vs Chelsea U19

Chelsea U19 beat Bayern München U19 3-2 in UEFA Youth League on September 17, 2025.

Goals: G. Antwi (15'), F. Chavez (19', 26'), S. Mheuka (47'), H. Murray-Campbell (62').

The match was played at FC Bayern Campus in Munich.

Bayern München U19 vs Chelsea U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bayern München U19 vs Chelsea U19