Bayern München U19 3–3 Borussia M'bach U19

Bayern München U19

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Borussia M'bach U19

2/28/2026

U19 Bundesliga · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Bayern München U1941%

×Draw21%

Borussia M'bach U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern München U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia M'bach U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.92

Bayern München U19

2.02

Borussia M'bach U19

1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 73 away

2.58

creates per match

2.32

1.52

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Bayern München U19

2.58

Borussia M'bach U19

2.32

allows per match

Bayern München U19

1.52

Borussia M'bach U19

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München U19 ↓

Borussia M'bach U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Bayern München U19 or draw

62%

Bayern München U19 or Borussia M'bach U19

79%

Draw or Borussia M'bach U19

59%

Winning margin

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

23%

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

87%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

60%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

33%

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

85%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

57%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern München U19 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.52 · 73 matches

Borussia M'bach U19 away — creates 2.32, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München U19 attack 2.58 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 2.02

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.32 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bayern München U19 scores more

41%

level

21%

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

38%

Bayern München U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Bayern

Borussia

Manager: Peter Gaydarov

Manager: O. Kirch

Match Recap: Bayern München U19 vs Borussia M'bach U19

Bayern München U19 and Borussia M'bach U19 drew 3-3 in U19 Bundesliga on February 28, 2026.

Bayern München U19 vs Borussia M'bach U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bayern München U19 vs Borussia M'bach U19