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Bayern München II vs Würzburger Kickers — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Bayern München II
Bayern München II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Würzburger Kickers
Würzburger Kickers
9/27/2025Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 11Städtisches Stadion an der Grünwalder Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Bayern München II38%
×Draw23%
Würzburger Kickers39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayern München II
1.65
Würzburger Kickers
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 54 away

creates per match

Bayern München II
2.55
Würzburger Kickers
2.11

allows per match

Bayern München II
1.28
Würzburger Kickers
0.76

finishing

Bayern München II+0.00on par
Würzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München II ↓

Würzburger Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Bayern München II or draw
61%
Bayern München II or Würzburger Kickers
77%
Draw or Würzburger Kickers
62%

Winning margin

Bayern München II wins by 2+
19%
Würzburger Kickers wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Bayern München II 1+ goals
81%
Bayern München II 2+ goals
49%
Bayern München II 3+ goals
23%
Würzburger Kickers 1+ goals
82%
Würzburger Kickers 2+ goals
50%
Würzburger Kickers 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Bayern München II (draw refunded)
49%
Würzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern München II at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.28 · 74 matches

Würzburger Kickers away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München II attack 2.55 + Würzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.65

Würzburger Kickers attack 2.11 + Bayern München II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bayern München II scores more
38%
level
23%
Würzburger Kickers scores more
39%

Würzburger Kickers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Würzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Bayern München II 1–3 Würzburger Kickers

Würzburger Kickers beat Bayern München II 3-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Städtisches Stadion an der Grünwalder Straße in München.