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Bayern München II vs Vilzing — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Bayern München II
Bayern München II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Vilzing
Vilzing
11/25/2022Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 23Städtisches Stadion an der Grünwalder Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Bayern München II53%
×Draw21%
Vilzing25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayern München II
2.09
Vilzing
1.39

Bayern München II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 54 away

creates per match

Bayern München II
2.55
Vilzing
1.50

allows per match

Bayern München II
1.28
Vilzing
1.63

finishing

Bayern München II+0.00on par
Vilzing+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München II ↓

Vilzing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Bayern München II or draw
75%
Bayern München II or Vilzing
79%
Draw or Vilzing
47%

Winning margin

Bayern München II wins by 2+
32%
Vilzing wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bayern München II 1+ goals
88%
Bayern München II 2+ goals
62%
Bayern München II 3+ goals
34%
Vilzing 1+ goals
75%
Vilzing 2+ goals
40%
Vilzing 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bayern München II (draw refunded)
68%
Vilzing (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern München II at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.28 · 74 matches

Vilzing away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.63 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München II attack 2.55 + Vilzing defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.09

Vilzing attack 1.50 + Bayern München II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bayern München II scores more
53%
level
21%
Vilzing scores more
25%

Bayern München II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bayern München II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bayern München II 5 – 0 Vilzing

Bayern München II beat Vilzing 5-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on November 25, 2022.

The match was played at Städtisches Stadion an der Grünwalder Straße in München.