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Bayern München II vs Ried — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bayern München II
Bayern München II
CANC
17:00
Ried
Ried
1/19/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3FC Bayern Campus Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bayern München II29%
×Draw24%
Ried47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayern München II
1.25
Ried
1.67

Ried creates 34% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bayern München II
0.67
Ried
1.50

allows per match

Bayern München II
1.83
Ried
1.83

finishing

Bayern München II+0.00on par
Ried+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München II ↓

Ried →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Bayern München II or draw
53%
Bayern München II or Ried
76%
Draw or Ried
71%

Winning margin

Bayern München II wins by 2+
12%
Ried wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Bayern München II 1+ goals
71%
Bayern München II 2+ goals
36%
Bayern München II 3+ goals
13%
Ried 1+ goals
81%
Ried 2+ goals
50%
Ried 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Bayern München II (draw refunded)
38%
Ried (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern München II at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Ried away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München II attack 0.67 + Ried defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.25

Ried attack 1.50 + Bayern München II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bayern München II scores more
29%
level
24%
Ried scores more
47%

Ried at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ried will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bayern München II vs Ried — Match Preview

Bayern München II face Ried on January 19, 2024 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bayern München II host Ried at FC Bayern Campus Platz 1.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.