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Bayern München II vs Greuther Fürth II — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Bayern München II
Bayern München II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Greuther Fürth II
Greuther Fürth II
2/19/2024Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 16Städtisches Stadion an der Grünwalder Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Bayern München II55%
×Draw21%
Greuther Fürth II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayern München II
2.08
Greuther Fürth II
1.31

Bayern München II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 87 away

creates per match

Bayern München II
2.55
Greuther Fürth II
1.33

allows per match

Bayern München II
1.28
Greuther Fürth II
1.62

finishing

Bayern München II+0.00on par
Greuther Fürth II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München II ↓

Greuther Fürth II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bayern München II or draw
76%
Bayern München II or Greuther Fürth II
79%
Draw or Greuther Fürth II
45%

Winning margin

Bayern München II wins by 2+
33%
Greuther Fürth II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bayern München II 1+ goals
87%
Bayern München II 2+ goals
61%
Bayern München II 3+ goals
34%
Greuther Fürth II 1+ goals
73%
Greuther Fürth II 2+ goals
38%
Greuther Fürth II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bayern München II (draw refunded)
70%
Greuther Fürth II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern München II at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.28 · 74 matches

Greuther Fürth II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.62 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München II attack 2.55 + Greuther Fürth II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.08

Greuther Fürth II attack 1.33 + Bayern München II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bayern München II scores more
55%
level
21%
Greuther Fürth II scores more
24%

Bayern München II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bayern München II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bayern München II 0 – 1 Greuther Fürth II

Greuther Fürth II beat Bayern München II 1-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on February 19, 2024.

The match was played at Städtisches Stadion an der Grünwalder Straße in München.