Bayern München II 3–2 FC Schweinfurt 05

Bayern München II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

FC Schweinfurt 05

Y. Kabadayı 90+5'

D. Segbé-Azankpo 48' (pen)

T. Kern 29' (pen)

P. Moll 83', 63'

3/3/2023

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 26Städtisches Stadion an der Grünwalder Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Bayern München II53%

×Draw21%

FC Schweinfurt 0527%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern München IIExpected goals in this matchFC Schweinfurt 05

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.52

Bayern München II

2.19

FC Schweinfurt 05

1.52

Bayern München II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 71 away

2.54

creates per match

1.79

1.26

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Bayern München II

2.54

FC Schweinfurt 05

1.79

allows per match

Bayern München II

1.26

FC Schweinfurt 05

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern München II+0.00on par

FC Schweinfurt 05+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München II ↓

FC Schweinfurt 05 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Bayern München II or draw

73%

Bayern München II or FC Schweinfurt 05

79%

Draw or FC Schweinfurt 05

47%

Winning margin

Bayern München II wins by 2+

32%

FC Schweinfurt 05 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bayern München II 1+ goals

89%

Bayern München II 2+ goals

64%

Bayern München II 3+ goals

37%

FC Schweinfurt 05 1+ goals

78%

FC Schweinfurt 05 2+ goals

45%

FC Schweinfurt 05 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Bayern München II (draw refunded)

66%

FC Schweinfurt 05 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern München II at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

FC Schweinfurt 05 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.83 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München II attack 2.54 + FC Schweinfurt 05 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.19

FC Schweinfurt 05 attack 1.79 + Bayern München II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bayern München II scores more

53%

level

21%

FC Schweinfurt 05 scores more

27%

Bayern München II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bayern München II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

T. KernPenalty

39'

P. Moll← A. Jabiri

46'

Y. Kabadayı← G. Ranos

46'

D. Segbé-Azankpo← P. Wanner

48'

D. Segbé-AzankpoPenalty

54'

63'

66'

74'

83'

89'

A. Bazdrigiannis← B. Hadžić

90+5'

Y. Kabadayı

Bayern

FC

1

32

21

3

2

13

15

▼

Fery

6

▼

Aigner

31

Kraus

27

▼

Jabiri

10

▼

18

2

4

5

10

⚽

▼

17

29

21

31

▼

Wanner

22

▼

Ranos

8

Lee

Manager: H. Seitz

46'▲Y. Kabadayı←▼G. Ranos

46'▲D. Segbé-Azankpo←▼P. Wanner

66'▲E. Aydın←▼T. Kern

Bayern München II substitutes

7Kabadayı34Segbé-Azankpo6Aydın14Neziri16Denk20Tikvić27Kehl42Hülsmann

Manager: C. Gmünder

39'▲P. Moll←▼A. Jabiri

54'▲S. Sturm←▼L. Aigner

74'▲M. Zietsch←▼K. Fery

89'▲A. Bazdrigiannis←▼B. Hadžić

FC Schweinfurt 05 substitutes

9Moll7Sturm16Zietsch17Bazdrigiannis18Schwarzholz19Pfarr20Cavadias24Stephan35Landeck

Match Recap: Bayern München II vs FC Schweinfurt 05

Bayern München II beat FC Schweinfurt 05 3-2 in Regionalliga - Bayern on March 3, 2023.

Goals: T. Kern (29' pen), D. Segbé-Azankpo (48' pen), P. Moll (63', 83'), Y. Kabadayı (90+5').

The match was played at Städtisches Stadion an der Grünwalder Straße in München.

Bayern München II vs FC Schweinfurt 05 — Regionalliga - Bayern 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bayern München II vs FC Schweinfurt 05