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Bayern München II vs Austria Lustenau — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bayern München II
Bayern München II
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3FC Bayern Campus Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bayern München II33%
×Draw23%
Austria Lustenau44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayern München II
1.55
Austria Lustenau
1.81

Austria Lustenau creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Bayern München II
0.67
Austria Lustenau
1.79

allows per match

Bayern München II
1.83
Austria Lustenau
2.43

finishing

Bayern München II+0.00on par
Austria Lustenau+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München II ↓

Austria Lustenau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bayern München II or draw
56%
Bayern München II or Austria Lustenau
77%
Draw or Austria Lustenau
67%

Winning margin

Bayern München II wins by 2+
16%
Austria Lustenau wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Bayern München II 1+ goals
79%
Bayern München II 2+ goals
46%
Bayern München II 3+ goals
20%
Austria Lustenau 1+ goals
84%
Austria Lustenau 2+ goals
54%
Austria Lustenau 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Bayern München II (draw refunded)
43%
Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern München II at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Austria Lustenau away — creates 1.79, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München II attack 0.67 + Austria Lustenau defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.55

Austria Lustenau attack 1.79 + Bayern München II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bayern München II scores more
33%
level
23%
Austria Lustenau scores more
44%

Austria Lustenau at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Austria Lustenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bayern München II vs Austria Lustenau

Austria Lustenau beat Bayern München II 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at FC Bayern Campus Platz 1 in München.