Bayern München II 3–2 Augsburg II: Result & Stats

Bayern München II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Augsburg II

4/5/2023

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 29Städtisches Stadion an der Grünwalder Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Bayern München II54%

×Draw21%

Augsburg II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern München IIExpected goals in this matchAugsburg II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.38

Bayern München II

2.13

Augsburg II

1.38

Bayern München II creates 54% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 87 away

2.55

creates per match

1.47

1.28

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Bayern München II

2.55

Augsburg II

1.47

allows per match

Bayern München II

1.28

Augsburg II

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern München II+0.00on par

Augsburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München II ↓

Augsburg II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Bayern München II or draw

75%

Bayern München II or Augsburg II

79%

Draw or Augsburg II

46%

Winning margin

Bayern München II wins by 2+

33%

Augsburg II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bayern München II 1+ goals

88%

Bayern München II 2+ goals

63%

Bayern München II 3+ goals

35%

Augsburg II 1+ goals

75%

Augsburg II 2+ goals

40%

Augsburg II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Bayern München II (draw refunded)

69%

Augsburg II (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern München II at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.28 · 74 matches

Augsburg II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.70 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München II attack 2.55 + Augsburg II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.13

Augsburg II attack 1.47 + Bayern München II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bayern München II scores more

54%

level

21%

Augsburg II scores more

25%

Bayern München II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bayern München II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff