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Bayern Hof vs Würzburger FV — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Bayern Hof
Bayern Hof
Preview
14:00
Würzburger FV
Würzburger FV
10/3/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 13
Big match
46%
Bayern Hof
model favours
46%24%31%
1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Bayern Hof46%
×Draw24%
Würzburger FV31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayern Hof
1.72
Würzburger FV
1.37

Bayern Hof creates 26% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Bayern Hof
1.44
Würzburger FV
1.31

allows per match

Bayern Hof
1.43
Würzburger FV
2.00

finishing

Bayern Hof+0.00on par
Würzburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Hof ↓

Würzburger FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bayern Hof or draw
69%
Bayern Hof or Würzburger FV
76%
Draw or Würzburger FV
54%

Winning margin

Bayern Hof wins by 2+
24%
Würzburger FV wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bayern Hof 1+ goals
82%
Bayern Hof 2+ goals
51%
Bayern Hof 3+ goals
25%
Würzburger FV 1+ goals
75%
Würzburger FV 2+ goals
40%
Würzburger FV 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bayern Hof (draw refunded)
60%
Würzburger FV (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Hof at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

Würzburger FV away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.00 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Hof attack 1.44 + Würzburger FV defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Würzburger FV attack 1.31 + Bayern Hof defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bayern Hof scores more
46%
level
24%
Würzburger FV scores more
31%

Bayern Hof at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bayern Hof will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Hof
DDWW
FV
DLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bayern Hof host Würzburger FV

October 3, 2026: Bayern Hof take on Würzburger FV in Oberliga - Bayern Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.