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Bayern Hof vs Weiden — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Bayern Hof
Bayern Hof
Preview
15:00
Weiden
Weiden
8/22/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 7
Big match
43%
Bayern Hof
model favours
43%24%33%

Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Bayern Hof43%
×Draw24%
Weiden33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayern Hof
1.60
Weiden
1.38

Bayern Hof creates 16% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 50 away

creates per match

Bayern Hof
1.44
Weiden
1.32

allows per match

Bayern Hof
1.43
Weiden
1.76

finishing

Bayern Hof+0.00on par
Weiden+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Hof ↓

Weiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bayern Hof or draw
67%
Bayern Hof or Weiden
76%
Draw or Weiden
57%

Winning margin

Bayern Hof wins by 2+
22%
Weiden wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bayern Hof 1+ goals
80%
Bayern Hof 2+ goals
47%
Bayern Hof 3+ goals
22%
Weiden 1+ goals
75%
Weiden 2+ goals
40%
Weiden 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bayern Hof (draw refunded)
56%
Weiden (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Hof at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

Weiden away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.76 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Hof attack 1.44 + Weiden defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.60

Weiden attack 1.32 + Bayern Hof defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bayern Hof scores more
43%
level
24%
Weiden scores more
33%

Bayern Hof at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bayern Hof will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Hof
DDWW
Weiden
LWDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bayern Hof host Weiden

August 22, 2026: Bayern Hof take on Weiden in Oberliga - Bayern Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.