Bayern Hof 2–0 ATSV Erlangen: Result & Stats

Bayern Hof

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

ATSV Erlangen

11/1/2025

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 17Städtisches Stadion Grüne Au

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Bayern Hof44%

×Draw25%

ATSV Erlangen32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern HofExpected goals in this matchATSV Erlangen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.29

Bayern Hof

1.56

ATSV Erlangen

1.29

Bayern Hof creates 21% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

1.44

creates per match

1.15

1.43

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Bayern Hof

1.44

ATSV Erlangen

1.15

allows per match

Bayern Hof

1.43

ATSV Erlangen

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern Hof+0.00on par

ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Hof ↓

ATSV Erlangen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bayern Hof or draw

68%

Bayern Hof or ATSV Erlangen

75%

Draw or ATSV Erlangen

56%

Winning margin

Bayern Hof wins by 2+

22%

ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bayern Hof 1+ goals

79%

Bayern Hof 2+ goals

46%

Bayern Hof 3+ goals

21%

ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals

72%

ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals

37%

ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bayern Hof (draw refunded)

58%

ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Hof at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

ATSV Erlangen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Hof attack 1.44 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.56

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.15 + Bayern Hof defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bayern Hof scores more

44%

level

25%

ATSV Erlangen scores more

32%

Bayern Hof at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bayern Hof will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff