Bayern Alzenau 1–2 Weidenhausen: Result & Stats

Bayern Alzenau

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Weidenhausen

5/27/2023

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 37Städtisches Stadion im Sportzentrum am Prischoß

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Bayern Alzenau59%

×Draw20%

Weidenhausen21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern AlzenauExpected goals in this matchWeidenhausen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.28

Bayern Alzenau

2.23

Weidenhausen

1.28

Bayern Alzenau creates 74% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 71 away

1.96

creates per match

1.45

1.11

allows per match

2.49

creates per match

Bayern Alzenau

1.96

Weidenhausen

1.45

allows per match

Bayern Alzenau

1.11

Weidenhausen

2.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern Alzenau+0.00on par

Weidenhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Alzenau ↓

Weidenhausen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Bayern Alzenau or draw

79%

Bayern Alzenau or Weidenhausen

80%

Draw or Weidenhausen

41%

Winning margin

Bayern Alzenau wins by 2+

36%

Weidenhausen wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bayern Alzenau 1+ goals

89%

Bayern Alzenau 2+ goals

65%

Bayern Alzenau 3+ goals

38%

Weidenhausen 1+ goals

72%

Weidenhausen 2+ goals

37%

Weidenhausen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bayern Alzenau (draw refunded)

73%

Weidenhausen (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Alzenau at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

Weidenhausen away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.49 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Alzenau attack 1.96 + Weidenhausen defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.23

Weidenhausen attack 1.45 + Bayern Alzenau defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bayern Alzenau scores more

59%

level

20%

Weidenhausen scores more

21%

Bayern Alzenau at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bayern Alzenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff