Bayern Alzenau 1–1 Viktoria Aschaffenburg

Bayern Alzenau

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Viktoria Aschaffenburg

2/2/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportzentrum Alzenau - Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bayern Alzenau36%

×Draw23%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern AlzenauExpected goals in this matchViktoria Aschaffenburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.72

Bayern Alzenau

1.61

Viktoria Aschaffenburg

1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.67

creates per match

2.11

1.33

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Bayern Alzenau

1.67

Viktoria Aschaffenburg

2.11

allows per match

Bayern Alzenau

1.33

Viktoria Aschaffenburg

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern Alzenau+0.00on par

Viktoria Aschaffenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Alzenau ↓

Viktoria Aschaffenburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Bayern Alzenau or draw

59%

Bayern Alzenau or Viktoria Aschaffenburg

77%

Draw or Viktoria Aschaffenburg

64%

Winning margin

Bayern Alzenau wins by 2+

18%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Bayern Alzenau 1+ goals

80%

Bayern Alzenau 2+ goals

48%

Bayern Alzenau 3+ goals

22%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg 1+ goals

82%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg 2+ goals

51%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Bayern Alzenau (draw refunded)

47%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Alzenau at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Viktoria Aschaffenburg away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Alzenau attack 1.67 + Viktoria Aschaffenburg defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.61

Viktoria Aschaffenburg attack 2.11 + Bayern Alzenau defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bayern Alzenau scores more

36%

level

23%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg scores more

41%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Viktoria Aschaffenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff