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Bayern Alzenau vs Dietkirchen — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Bayern Alzenau
Bayern Alzenau
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dietkirchen
Dietkirchen
10/29/2022Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 17Städtisches Stadion im Sportzentrum am Prischoß

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bayern Alzenau65%
×Draw18%
Dietkirchen16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayern Alzenau
2.42
Dietkirchen
1.13

Bayern Alzenau creates 114% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 57 away

creates per match

Bayern Alzenau
1.96
Dietkirchen
1.14

allows per match

Bayern Alzenau
1.11
Dietkirchen
2.89

finishing

Bayern Alzenau+0.00on par
Dietkirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Alzenau ↓

Dietkirchen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Bayern Alzenau or draw
84%
Bayern Alzenau or Dietkirchen
82%
Draw or Dietkirchen
35%

Winning margin

Bayern Alzenau wins by 2+
43%
Dietkirchen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bayern Alzenau 1+ goals
91%
Bayern Alzenau 2+ goals
69%
Bayern Alzenau 3+ goals
43%
Dietkirchen 1+ goals
68%
Dietkirchen 2+ goals
31%
Dietkirchen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bayern Alzenau (draw refunded)
80%
Dietkirchen (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Alzenau at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

Dietkirchen away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.89 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Alzenau attack 1.96 + Dietkirchen defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.42

Dietkirchen attack 1.14 + Bayern Alzenau defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Bayern Alzenau scores more
65%
level
18%
Dietkirchen scores more
16%

Bayern Alzenau at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Bayern Alzenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bayern Alzenau 4 – 1 Dietkirchen

Bayern Alzenau beat Dietkirchen 4-1 in Oberliga - Hessen on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Städtisches Stadion im Sportzentrum am Prischoß in Alzenau.