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Bayern Alzenau vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bayern Alzenau
Bayern Alzenau
CANC
18:00
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
1/23/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportzentrum Alzenau - Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bayern Alzenau45%
×Draw24%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayern Alzenau
1.67
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
1.33

Bayern Alzenau creates 26% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bayern Alzenau
1.67
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
1.33

allows per match

Bayern Alzenau
1.33
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
1.67

finishing

Bayern Alzenau+0.00on par
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Alzenau ↓

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bayern Alzenau or draw
69%
Bayern Alzenau or Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
76%
Draw or Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
55%

Winning margin

Bayern Alzenau wins by 2+
24%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bayern Alzenau 1+ goals
81%
Bayern Alzenau 2+ goals
50%
Bayern Alzenau 3+ goals
23%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 1+ goals
74%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 2+ goals
38%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bayern Alzenau (draw refunded)
60%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Alzenau at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Alzenau attack 1.67 + Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. attack 1.33 + Bayern Alzenau defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bayern Alzenau scores more
45%
level
24%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. scores more
31%

Bayern Alzenau at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bayern Alzenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bayern Alzenau vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. — Match Preview

Bayern Alzenau face Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. on January 23, 2024 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bayern Alzenau host Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. at Sportzentrum Alzenau - Platz 2.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.