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Bayern Alzenau vs 1960 Hanau — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Bayern Alzenau
Bayern Alzenau
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
1960 Hanau
1960 Hanau
J. Barry 72', 24'
Y. Djebbari 49' (pen)
A. Ziga 33'
L. Fecher 22'
Ronaldo 2'
10/19/2024Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 16Städtisches Stadion im Sportzentrum am Prischoß

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Bayern Alzenau51%
×Draw21%
1960 Hanau28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayern Alzenau
2.09
1960 Hanau
1.49

Bayern Alzenau creates 40% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 52 away

creates per match

Bayern Alzenau
1.96
1960 Hanau
1.87

allows per match

Bayern Alzenau
1.11
1960 Hanau
2.23

finishing

Bayern Alzenau+0.00on par
1960 Hanau+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Alzenau ↓

1960 Hanau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Bayern Alzenau or draw
72%
Bayern Alzenau or 1960 Hanau
79%
Draw or 1960 Hanau
49%

Winning margin

Bayern Alzenau wins by 2+
30%
1960 Hanau wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bayern Alzenau 1+ goals
88%
Bayern Alzenau 2+ goals
62%
Bayern Alzenau 3+ goals
34%
1960 Hanau 1+ goals
77%
1960 Hanau 2+ goals
44%
1960 Hanau 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Bayern Alzenau (draw refunded)
65%
1960 Hanau (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Alzenau at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

1960 Hanau away — creates 1.87, concedes 2.23 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Alzenau attack 1.96 + 1960 Hanau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.09

1960 Hanau attack 1.87 + Bayern Alzenau defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bayern Alzenau scores more
51%
level
21%
1960 Hanau scores more
28%

Bayern Alzenau at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bayern Alzenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Ronaldo
22'
L. Fecher
24'
J. Barry
33'
A. Ziga
49'
Y. DjebbariPenalty
72'
J. Barry

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bayern Alzenau 5 – 1 1960 Hanau

Bayern Alzenau beat 1960 Hanau 5-1 in Oberliga - Hessen on October 19, 2024.

Goals: Ronaldo (2'), L. Fecher (22'), J. Barry (24', 72'), A. Ziga (33'), Y. Djebbari (49' pen).

The match was played at Städtisches Stadion im Sportzentrum am Prischoß in Alzenau.