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Bayer Leverkusen vs Juventus — UEFA Champions League 2026

Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Juventus
Juventus
12/11/2019UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 6BayArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Bayer Leverkusen46%
×Draw23%
Juventus30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayer Leverkusen
1.75
Juventus
1.38

Bayer Leverkusen creates 27% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Bayer Leverkusen
1.49
Juventus
1.39

allows per match

Bayer Leverkusen
1.37
Juventus
2.02

finishing

Bayer Leverkusen-0.20scores less
Juventus+0.01on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayer Leverkusen ↓

Juventus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bayer Leverkusen or draw
70%
Bayer Leverkusen or Juventus
77%
Draw or Juventus
54%

Winning margin

Bayer Leverkusen wins by 2+
25%
Juventus wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bayer Leverkusen 1+ goals
83%
Bayer Leverkusen 2+ goals
52%
Bayer Leverkusen 3+ goals
25%
Juventus 1+ goals
75%
Juventus 2+ goals
40%
Juventus 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bayer Leverkusen (draw refunded)
60%
Juventus (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayer Leverkusen at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.37 · 7 matches

Juventus away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.02 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.49 + Juventus defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.75

Juventus attack 1.39 + Bayer Leverkusen defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bayer Leverkusen scores more
46%
level
23%
Juventus scores more
30%

Bayer Leverkusen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League: Bayer Leverkusen 0–2 Juventus

Juventus beat Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 in UEFA Champions League on December 11, 2019.

The match was played at BayArena in Leverkusen.