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Bayer Leverkusen vs Dinamo Moscow — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
CANC
00:00
Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscow
7/18/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Alois Latini Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bayer Leverkusen54%
×Draw23%
Dinamo Moscow23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayer Leverkusen
1.86
Dinamo Moscow
1.15

Bayer Leverkusen creates 62% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Bayer Leverkusen
2.33
Dinamo Moscow
1.30

allows per match

Bayer Leverkusen
1.00
Dinamo Moscow
1.40

finishing

Bayer Leverkusen+0.00on par
Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayer Leverkusen ↓

Dinamo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bayer Leverkusen or draw
77%
Bayer Leverkusen or Dinamo Moscow
77%
Draw or Dinamo Moscow
46%

Winning margin

Bayer Leverkusen wins by 2+
31%
Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bayer Leverkusen 1+ goals
84%
Bayer Leverkusen 2+ goals
55%
Bayer Leverkusen 3+ goals
28%
Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals
68%
Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals
32%
Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bayer Leverkusen (draw refunded)
70%
Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayer Leverkusen at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayer Leverkusen attack 2.33 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.86

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.30 + Bayer Leverkusen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bayer Leverkusen scores more
54%
level
23%
Dinamo Moscow scores more
23%

Bayer Leverkusen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bayer Leverkusen face Dinamo Moscow (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Bayer Leverkusen hosting Dinamo Moscow. Match starts July 18, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bayer Leverkusen host Dinamo Moscow at Alois Latini Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.