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Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Köln U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Bayer Leverkusen U19
Bayer Leverkusen U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Köln U19
Köln U19
9/16/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 5Ulrich-Haberland-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Bayer Leverkusen U1944%
×Draw22%
Köln U1934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.88
Köln U19
1.65

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 69 away

creates per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19
2.62
Köln U19
2.01

allows per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.28
Köln U19
1.14

finishing

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par
Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayer Leverkusen U19 ↓

Köln U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or draw
66%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 or Köln U19
78%
Draw or Köln U19
56%

Winning margin

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+
24%
Köln U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals
85%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals
56%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals
29%
Köln U19 1+ goals
81%
Köln U19 2+ goals
49%
Köln U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)
56%
Köln U19 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

Köln U19 away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.14 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.62 + Köln U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.88

Köln U19 attack 2.01 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more
44%
level
22%
Köln U19 scores more
34%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Köln U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19 beat Köln U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Ulrich-Haberland-Stadion in Leverkusen.