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Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs FSV Frankfurt U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Bayer Leverkusen U19
Bayer Leverkusen U19
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
FSV Frankfurt U19
FSV Frankfurt U19
E. Owen 89'
D. Buck 82'
K. Izekor 67', 13'
M. Akhouji 90'
L. Kraft 26'
L. Hoti 5'
9/21/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 7Jugendleistungszentrum Kurtekotten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Bayer Leverkusen U1962%
×Draw19%
FSV Frankfurt U1919%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayer Leverkusen U19
2.38
FSV Frankfurt U19
1.25

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 90% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 31 away

creates per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19
2.65
FSV Frankfurt U19
1.23

allows per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.26
FSV Frankfurt U19
2.10

finishing

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par
FSV Frankfurt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayer Leverkusen U19 ↓

FSV Frankfurt U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or draw
81%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 or FSV Frankfurt U19
81%
Draw or FSV Frankfurt U19
38%

Winning margin

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+
40%
FSV Frankfurt U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals
91%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals
68%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals
42%
FSV Frankfurt U19 1+ goals
71%
FSV Frankfurt U19 2+ goals
36%
FSV Frankfurt U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)
77%
FSV Frankfurt U19 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.26 · 66 matches

FSV Frankfurt U19 away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.65 + FSV Frankfurt U19 defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.38

FSV Frankfurt U19 attack 1.23 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more
62%
level
19%
FSV Frankfurt U19 scores more
19%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
L. Hoti
13'
K. Izekor
26'
L. Kraft
67'
K. Izekor
82'
D. Buck
89'
E. Owen
90'
M. Akhouji
Bayer
FSV
Kevin Brok
Manager: Kevin Brok
B. Yelken
Manager: B. Yelken

U19 Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen U19 4–3 FSV Frankfurt U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19 beat FSV Frankfurt U19 4-3 in U19 Bundesliga on September 21, 2025.

Goals: L. Hoti (5'), K. Izekor (13', 67'), L. Kraft (26'), D. Buck (82'), E. Owen (89'), M. Akhouji (90').

The match was played at Jugendleistungszentrum Kurtekotten in Köln.