Bayer Leverkusen U19 0–2 Freiburg U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Freiburg U19

12/17/2023

DFB Junioren Pokal · Quarter-finalsUlrich-Haberland-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bayer Leverkusen U1913%

×Draw15%

Freiburg U1972%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayer Leverkusen U19Expected goals in this matchFreiburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

2.95

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.20

Freiburg U19

2.95

Freiburg U19 creates 146% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.50

creates per match

2.89

3.00

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19

1.50

Freiburg U19

2.89

allows per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19

3.00

Freiburg U19

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayer Leverkusen U19 ↓

Freiburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or draw

28%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or Freiburg U19

85%

Draw or Freiburg U19

87%

Winning margin

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+

5%

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+

52%

Team goals

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals

70%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals

34%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals

12%

Freiburg U19 1+ goals

95%

Freiburg U19 2+ goals

79%

Freiburg U19 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)

15%

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Freiburg U19 away — creates 2.89, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 1.50 + Freiburg U19 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.20

Freiburg U19 attack 2.89 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more

13%

level

15%

Freiburg U19 scores more

72%

Freiburg U19 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Freiburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff